I recently analyzed the Lincoln Park Condo market to get to see where condo prices might be heading. This time I will be looking at the Lincoln Park detached single family market in Chicago. I again compared the current median sales prices vs. those that are under contract and are expected to close in the next 30-60 days. First lets look at a few charts to see how the market has performed over the last year.
Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price (Rolling 12 month average) – As you can see below, the overall detached single family market is up 15.4% year-over-year and the upward trend appears to be continuing with the most recent data showing a median sale price of $1,500,000.
Months supply of inventory – Supply of inventory is around 5 months and has remained around this level for some time now up. Anything between 3-6 months is considered to be a balanced market.
Average Market Time – The average time it takes to sell a house is significantly less (down 21% year-over-year). This is also a healthy number and is a sign of a strong market. For a little perspective, that number peaked at an average of around 221 days on market back in 2010.
List to Sales Price Ratio – The amount the home sells for vs. what it was most recently listed for has remained stable year-over-year at around 95%.
Distressed Sales – As you can see below, the number of REO (foreclosures) and Short Sales are almost non existent in Lincoln Park and have not been a factor for quite a while.
As noted in the previous post, these are “rear view mirror” statistics. As I analyze the market to help homeowners determine an appropriate listing price for their home, (click here for more info on that process) I analyze forward looking indicators in an effort to be aware of what may be in store for the market.
After noting the current median sales price of $1,509,000, I compared that data point to a more forward looking data point, pending sales. The current median list price of the units currently under contract is $2,195,000. That number is significantly higher than what has sold over the last 12 months. With the exception of a few hot markets, homes very seldom sell at list price. Over the last 12 months, the list to sales price ratio is approximately 95% (see chart above). Even after the 5% is removed from the pending sale to anticipate the final sales price, there is still a projected significant increase in median sales prices for those homes currently under contract vs. the current 12 month median sales price. Due to their only being approximately 41 units in the pending/under contract data, I expanded the data to include all active listings as well. That included 148 homes and brought up the median list price to $2,095,000. It is more than likely that there is a larger mix of larger, newer construction homes in the pending/listing data that could be inflating the projected overall increase, but based on that data combined with other market factors analyzed, the single family market appears to be strong and should remain so over the next few months.
In summary, the overall detached single family market has been strong over the last 12 months and the Lincoln Park neighborhood is not showing any signs of slowing. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next several month. For more Lincoln Park charts check out our Lincoln Park Page. If you have any questions, please feel free to call us anytime at (847) 863-5776.
Social tagging: Chicago appraisal > Chicago appraiser